General Election Archives - Politico Digital UK

Has Peterborough burst the Brexit Party bubble ?

The Peterborough By-Election on Thursday was arguably the perfect territory for the Brexit Party to cause a big political upset.

Surely a seat where the sitting Labour MP was removed by petition after a Criminal conviction and one that voted 60% Leave in 2016 was the big opportunity for the Brexit Party to maintain the momentum they had built up in the Euro Elections a fortnight earlier.

Well perhaps or maybe the result is a reflection of poor expectation management by the Farage’s team – to go from zero to 29% and come a close second is a substantial achievement but it may also be seen as a benchmark of how different his new party is from UKIP in organisational terms.

As I pointed out in my blog (February 2019 about ChangeUK ) the electoral system – first past the post- is unforgiving to new parties. Parties need members and infrastructure ( officers, data, money and election agents for example) and this can take years to build up. There is a high correlation between a strong local government base and winning a Westminster seat.

As Stephen Bush suggests ‘a familiar failing from Nigel Farage’s Ukip days is (sic) they can win proportional contests and (sic) leverage every appearance on television for everything it is worth, but at a constituency level, they simply don’t have the granular knowledge of where their vote is to find it. The Farage roadshow leaves Peterborough with a collection of glowing press clippings and a silver medal, just like he left the by-elections in Eastleigh, and Newark, and Heywood and Middleton. Farage has yet to win a seat without the benefit of defection, and both of those cases, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless took a substantial chunk of their local Conservative party with them, which significantly helped to boost the ground campaign of his party.’

So arguably ‘the Jury is out’ on whether the Brexit Party will make the breakthrough it needs. As John Curtice points out ‘Peterborough does not demonstrate that “normal politics” is once again in sight. Rather, it confirms the message of the post-Euro election polls that Britain now has – for the first time ever – as many as four parties jostling for electoral advantage, all with seemingly little more than between a fifth and a quarter of the vote, and none, apparently, with a realistic chance of winning an overall majority,’

A few more by-elections or even an ( increasingly likely) General Election will tell us a lot more.

Richard Dawson

UK Politics -What Next ? 4-5 Changes of Govt in 3-4 years ?

Turbulent times? Some say we will look back at Theresa May’s time in office with nostalgia in a few years. Certainly, the passage of time will give us perspective but the next 4 to 5 years seem certain to see the break up of the two main parties ( predicted many time before). Then possibly a gradual re-alignment into new parties probably built around the Leave/Remain schism.

David Herdson on Political Betting has a great piece on what may happen HERE, fictional may be but the truth, as they say, is stranger than fiction.

Jess Philips for PM ?- who knows?

As Ronald Reagan once said ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’

Richard Dawson

As the Brexit Positions of the major parties become clear a General Election becomes a viable alternative to a #PeoplesVote

Mrs May’s humiliation in Salzburg on Thursday looks certain to see the Conservatives shift or ‘pivot’ away from ‘Chequers’ to advocating a ‘Canada Plus’ Brexit it seems to me.

Meanwhile, Labour who already advocates many of the features of a ‘Norway+Customs Union‘ style Brexit deal. Its seem they will be firming up their position and for mainly tactical reasons adopting a second referendum or ‘peoples vote’ as policy.

As we know the Liberal Democrats have always advocated an #exitfrombrexit and remaining in the EU.

And so we are now very close to the point where all three UK wide parties have clear positions on Brexit. Up until now the Constructively Ambiguity of Labour on Brexit and the ‘compromises’ of ‘Chequers’ have made the idea of another General Election to settle the issues untenable soon it may not be so and a #PeoplesVote may look like a less attractive way of resolving a constitutional impasse.

That is of course so long as neither Labour nor the Conservatives split!

Richard Dawson

image credit: @BrookesTimes

With nearly all UK Parties in turmoil we are in uncharted territory.

With the Civil Wars in both Labour and Conservatives now escalating we seem to be in uncharted territory at no time in modern political history have both larger parties been in crisis at the same time.

At the same time, we seem to be seeing a realignment of voters with the Tories becoming a non-metropolitan pro-Brexit party and the Labour Party seeing its support shifting in the opposite direction.

Looking at the other established parties we see the SNP in conflict over the Alex Salmond Investigation, the Greens with a Leadership Crisis and that’s before we come to UKIP and its problems.

You could argue that Lib Dems are the only ones left standing in their post Coalition (doesn’t that seem longer than 3 years ago !) but their recovery is in its early stages.

So we seem to have a unique situation just about the whole of our Party system is dysfunctional yet our Voting System ( First Past the Post ) makes it hard for the new parties that could emerge from the chaos to succeed at Parliamentary level.

Somethings got to give and its hard to see what yet?

Richard Dawson

Will ‘Super Tuesday’ lead to an October General Election ?

State of the parties at 06.00am. See story ELECTION Main. PA Graphics

It is said that the odds on ( yet another ) General Election are shortening by the day though some would say that the Brexit Negotiations make one inevitable. Tuesday 12th June is what the Americans might call ‘Super Tuesday’ all 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawl Bill will be voted on in one long day in the House of Commons. The government will be asking MPs to reject them all.

It doesn’t require much effort to imagine the right conditions arising to trigger an Election this Autumn.

The Prime Minister has managed to get to the end of phase one of Brexit talks ( last December) and agreed on a transition phase just before Easter. The hardcore Leavers in the Conservative have grumbled a little but have largely stayed loyal.

The next ( and main) stage of negotiations are underway and as expected to prove very difficult both within Government and with the EU.

The splits in the Conservative Party are getting wider.’Super Tuesday’ will be the biggest test yet.

The Government expects to win all 15 votes but who really knows.

However, the return of the EU Trade bill in July will see a full-blown rebellion from Remainers in the Conservative Party. If Labour does finally endorse staying in the Single Market having already backed staying in a Customs Union we may have deadlock and the Government won’t be able to get its Brexit strategy through Parliament.

May’s pursuit of a smooth, orderly, and some would say very soft Brexit looks increasingly like its pushing Brexiteers too far and will trigger a coup against her. Tim Shipman of the The Times Today suggests this will come as soon as July when the Withdrawl Bill receives Royal Assent.

A new Conservative leader (and PM) may feel that they need to go to the Country not only to break the parliamentary deadlock but also to get a mandate for a harder Brexit assuming they are a Leaver of course.

Its very unlikely Labour would decline the opportunity to have an election so passing the threshold of 66% of MPs needed to trigger a GE should be no problem.

On the other side of the equation, however, we should consider :

There is no public appetite for one – you can hear ‘Brenda from Bristol’ warming up her vocal cords as we speak. Another election is likely to be divisive and bitter.
Aside from a few burnt Conservative fingers from 2017 to put off a new leader -Its highly likely an election would produce another Hung Parliament albeit with a different composition to the current one. The polls haven’t shifted very much and Hung Parliaments are the new norm and majorities are the exception.
A Conservative Leadership election could easily see Theresa May win and face down her critics and its unlikely she would be very keen to go to the Country again.

So the answers as so often are ‘who knows’. Political chaos continues. Brexit truly is the only show in town.

UK Politics will certainly remain interesting for those who follow it closely but probably baffling for everyone else.

Richard Dawson