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Has Peterborough burst the Brexit Party bubble ?

The Peterborough By-Election on Thursday was arguably the perfect territory for the Brexit Party to cause a big political upset.

Surely a seat where the sitting Labour MP was removed by petition after a Criminal conviction and one that voted 60% Leave in 2016 was the big opportunity for the Brexit Party to maintain the momentum they had built up in the Euro Elections a fortnight earlier.

Well perhaps or maybe the result is a reflection of poor expectation management by the Farage’s team – to go from zero to 29% and come a close second is a substantial achievement but it may also be seen as a benchmark of how different his new party is from UKIP in organisational terms.

As I pointed out in my blog (February 2019 about ChangeUK ) the electoral system – first past the post- is unforgiving to new parties. Parties need members and infrastructure ( officers, data, money and election agents for example) and this can take years to build up. There is a high correlation between a strong local government base and winning a Westminster seat.

As Stephen Bush suggests ‘a familiar failing from Nigel Farage’s Ukip days is (sic) they can win proportional contests and (sic) leverage every appearance on television for everything it is worth, but at a constituency level, they simply don’t have the granular knowledge of where their vote is to find it. The Farage roadshow leaves Peterborough with a collection of glowing press clippings and a silver medal, just like he left the by-elections in Eastleigh, and Newark, and Heywood and Middleton. Farage has yet to win a seat without the benefit of defection, and both of those cases, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless took a substantial chunk of their local Conservative party with them, which significantly helped to boost the ground campaign of his party.’

So arguably ‘the Jury is out’ on whether the Brexit Party will make the breakthrough it needs. As John Curtice points out ‘Peterborough does not demonstrate that “normal politics” is once again in sight. Rather, it confirms the message of the post-Euro election polls that Britain now has – for the first time ever – as many as four parties jostling for electoral advantage, all with seemingly little more than between a fifth and a quarter of the vote, and none, apparently, with a realistic chance of winning an overall majority,’

A few more by-elections or even an ( increasingly likely) General Election will tell us a lot more.

Richard Dawson

UK Politics -What Next ? 4-5 Changes of Govt in 3-4 years ?

Turbulent times? Some say we will look back at Theresa May’s time in office with nostalgia in a few years. Certainly, the passage of time will give us perspective but the next 4 to 5 years seem certain to see the break up of the two main parties ( predicted many time before). Then possibly a gradual re-alignment into new parties probably built around the Leave/Remain schism.

David Herdson on Political Betting has a great piece on what may happen HERE, fictional may be but the truth, as they say, is stranger than fiction.

Jess Philips for PM ?- who knows?

As Ronald Reagan once said ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet’

Richard Dawson

With Nick Clegg’s move to Facebook the Liberal Democrats can move on !

Its come as a surprise to many that Sir Nick Clegg has been appointed by Facebook as their new vice-president of global affairs and communications.

Some, of course, greeted the decision with bewilderment others questioned why Nick Clegg? Interesting no one seems to have questioned the need for Facebook to better engage with the global political establishment.

It’s clear that the main regulatory challenge to Facebook is coming from the European Union (EU), and Clegg – who worked for the European Commission and was then was an MEP from 1999 to 2004, He certainly knows his way around Brussels. He speaks 5 languages and as a former Deputy PM in the UK, he also knows plenty about the inner workings of the UK Government.

The EU has a clear agenda to reign in the power of American technology companies so who better than someone with Clegg’s experience to lobby and navigate the interests and structures of Brussels?

Clegg himself sees his role as to ‘build bridges between politics and tech so that tech can become the servant of progress and optimism, not a source of fear and suspicion.’

He adds ‘ If the tech industry can work sensibly with governments, regulators, parliaments and civic society around the world, I believe we can enhance the benefits of technology while diminishing the often unintended downsides.’

For the Liberal Democrats, it means any thoughts of a Clegg come back (a London seat was rumoured as a possible way back) are well and truly over.

However, it also means they can probably truly move on from the Coalition era though they might not truly be able to do that until Vince Cable steps down too.

Richard Dawson

Image Credit: City AM

As the Brexit Positions of the major parties become clear a General Election becomes a viable alternative to a #PeoplesVote

Mrs May’s humiliation in Salzburg on Thursday looks certain to see the Conservatives shift or ‘pivot’ away from ‘Chequers’ to advocating a ‘Canada Plus’ Brexit it seems to me.

Meanwhile, Labour who already advocates many of the features of a ‘Norway+Customs Union‘ style Brexit deal. Its seem they will be firming up their position and for mainly tactical reasons adopting a second referendum or ‘peoples vote’ as policy.

As we know the Liberal Democrats have always advocated an #exitfrombrexit and remaining in the EU.

And so we are now very close to the point where all three UK wide parties have clear positions on Brexit. Up until now the Constructively Ambiguity of Labour on Brexit and the ‘compromises’ of ‘Chequers’ have made the idea of another General Election to settle the issues untenable soon it may not be so and a #PeoplesVote may look like a less attractive way of resolving a constitutional impasse.

That is of course so long as neither Labour nor the Conservatives split!

Richard Dawson

image credit: @BrookesTimes

With nearly all UK Parties in turmoil we are in uncharted territory.

With the Civil Wars in both Labour and Conservatives now escalating we seem to be in uncharted territory at no time in modern political history have both larger parties been in crisis at the same time.

At the same time, we seem to be seeing a realignment of voters with the Tories becoming a non-metropolitan pro-Brexit party and the Labour Party seeing its support shifting in the opposite direction.

Looking at the other established parties we see the SNP in conflict over the Alex Salmond Investigation, the Greens with a Leadership Crisis and that’s before we come to UKIP and its problems.

You could argue that Lib Dems are the only ones left standing in their post Coalition (doesn’t that seem longer than 3 years ago !) but their recovery is in its early stages.

So we seem to have a unique situation just about the whole of our Party system is dysfunctional yet our Voting System ( First Past the Post ) makes it hard for the new parties that could emerge from the chaos to succeed at Parliamentary level.

Somethings got to give and its hard to see what yet?

Richard Dawson